Captaincy Tool: Return Odds Calculator
This tool will help give a reasonable indication of the odds of a player returning in a particular match-up. Simply enter the player's minutes played for the relevant section, along with his returns (goals + assists + CS for Def's) for the same section, and finally the "shots per game conceded" (SpG C) of the opposition. These stats can be found in the "Stats" section of this website. The SpG C figure for all teams can be found there, along with statitistics for the 30 top scoring players. If the player you are looking to research is not on that list, then unfortunately you will have to find those numbers yourself. Compiling stats on every player in the game is beyond the scope of this site.
Once you have inputted the relevant data, hit "Submit" and the page will return the odds of that player getting an attacking return for the match in question. Please note that in order to get an accurate prediction on a player, a substantial amount of game time data is required. I recommend using the player's stats from the previous season, especially if you are using this tool early in the current season, or you can combine both seasons stats. Combining them with last seasons figures would be more accurate in my opinion - the more data the better. For the SpG Conceded, use the previous seasons figure until the current seasons stats become available.
So for example, say you want to find the odds of Salah getting a return (goal or assist) in a home game against Brighton. You would first get Salah's total minutes played in that section: i.e Home against Non-Big 6 opposition. Then find the total returns Salah got in those particular match ups: i.e goals + assists (for defenders you would also add clean sheets here). Then enter Brighton's SpG conceded in away games. Hit "Submit" and the page will return an odds figure which will always be in the fractional format: i.e 2/1 or 0.8/1. Obviously, the lower the figure on the left the more likely the player is to return in the game being analysed.
If you are dealing with a small sample size, for instance, Salah at home to Man City, where there may only be 4 or 5 games of data, then using the player's overall Home Stats may be more accurate.
Although this tool is designed for deciding on a captain for a particular gameweek, it could also be used when contemplating a transfer for the upcoming week.
Please note, that this calculation of the return odds of a player is based on my own opinion. The player's historical performance against a particular opposition is weighed against that opposition's historical defensive performance, and a calculation is then performed based on those figures. Not everyone may agree with my assessment, but the motivation behind this tool was to give a clearer picture, based on current and historical data, of a player's likelihood of returning compared to the bookmakers odds assessment, which is skewed towards them making money in the long run, and thus not the fairest reflection of the player's actual chances. Also, the bookmakers do not compile odds for assist potential, where as this tool does.